The last 24 hours
The house remains inside the Level 1 "Get Ready" zone, unchanged since the Aug 15 redraw — no zone edits anywhere in the system in the last 24h. Level 2 "Get Set" holds at 2.0 mi NNE and Level 3 "Go Now" at 3.7 mi NNE, both untouched since Aug 16. The Entiat-side zones (Level 2 at 9.3 mi E, Level 3 at 8.4 mi ENE) last moved Aug 20; the Chelan-side zones haven't moved since Aug 16–19.
The GIS perimeter got its first fresh capture since Aug 20, 7:29 PM PDT — this morning's snapshot is dated Aug 22, 6:18 AM PDT, so the numbers below reflect roughly 35 hours of fire growth, not one overnight cycle. Acreage is up to 142,218 (+2,731), containment improved to 15% (from 12%), and InciWeb's Aug 21 update matches those figures exactly. Fire behavior is described as primarily surface fire — backing and flanking — with localized uphill and up-drainage runs, torching, and spotting, and concentrated heat near Cougar Mountain and along the northern perimeter. New evacuation activity this cycle is all on the Chelan side: Level 3 for the north shore of Lake Chelan (Deer Point to Safety Harbor Campground) and Level 1/2 for the Lake Chelan and First Creek Road areas — all well outside the 15 mi range that matters for Plain.
The nearest point of the perimeter to the house moved from 6.6 mi N to 5.3 mi NE — a real shift, not just noise, since it comes with the bearing changing from due north to just east of north. Two new VIIRS clusters appeared right in that same area, 5.2 mi NNE (5 detections) and 5.6 mi NNE (9 detections), both single-day (Aug 22 only), UNVERIFIED, with a maximum FRP of 19.1. Given they sit almost exactly on top of the freshly updated leading edge, the more likely read is that these are the main fire's own edge catching up with satellite detection rather than a separate spot fire — but that's not confirmed, and it bears watching over the next cycle. No news source (InciWeb, Lake Chelan Now, or a general search) reports a new start near Plain.
lakewenatcheeinfo.com did not return usable content this cycle. Lake Chelan Now's most recent post is still the community-meeting notice (Tuesday, 6:30 PM, Lake Wenatchee Recreation Club). The Chelan County evacuation-zone page is still showing an Aug 17 post — treat it as stale; zone boundaries here come from the Sheriff's GIS layer, not news copy.
Fire weather
The Red Flag Warning is now in effect — Aug 22, 11 AM through Aug 23, 8 AM — the same window NWS has been flagging all week, now live. The trigger is a cold front bringing thunderstorms, strong winds, and gusty outflow up to 40 mph, with lightning risk for new starts. Today's forecast wind is NW 3–12 mph, gusts to 23 mph, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 AM and 5 PM — the exact Red Flag window. NW wind keeps pushing the fire east, away from Plain, which is the good news. The catch: outflow gusts under a thunderstorm cell don't follow the prevailing direction, which is precisely the erratic-wind scenario a Red Flag Warning exists to call out. Tonight settles to NW 6–14 mph; Sunday stays NW at 7–12 mph before winds go light and variable into next week.
Air quality
AQI jumped to 163 (PM2.5 112.5 µg/m3), up sharply from last night's 68 (PM2.5 10.5) — a return to the smoke-settled pattern rather than an improvement. NWS's Air Quality Alert for Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan counties remains in effect through 3 PM today.
Roads: no blocks logged.
What I'd watch
- Thunderstorm cells through Sunday 8 AM — any outflow gust reported out of the north or northeast, not just the prevailing NW, would be the first sign of the erratic-wind scenario the Red Flag Warning is for.
- The two new unverified VIIRS clusters at 5.2–5.6 mi NNE — whether they persist into a second day (confirming ongoing heat) or disappear (consistent with just being the perimeter's leading edge).
- Next GIS capture — this cycle's jump reflected 35 hours of stale data catching up; the next capture should show whether growth is slowing or continuing at pace now that the snapshot cadence is current.