The last 24 hours
The house is still inside the Level 1 "Get Ready" zone, unchanged since yesterday's 3:03 PM PDT redraw. Level 2 "Get Set" and Level 3 "Go Now" were both edited again this afternoon — Level 2 at 3:20 PM PDT, Level 3 at 3:21 PM PDT — but landed at the same 2.0 mi NNE and 3.7 mi NNE reported this morning, with identical geometry. Two Lake Chelan-side zones (LG Chelan Level 2 and 3, 15.1–16 mi out) were touched within the same minute, which points to a systemwide zone republish rather than a Plain-specific move. Per the runbook, an edit timestamp change is still logged as a zone edit regardless of whether the boundary moved, so this counts as an active-day trigger even though nothing on the ground shifted.
The GIS perimeter itself hasn't refreshed since last night: still 132,351 acres, 10% contained, dated Aug 15, 4:57 PM PDT — now over 23 hours stale. InciWeb's Aug 16, 8:45 AM update and the Cashmere Valley Record both give a newer 132,978 acres, still 10% contained; per the reconciliation rule that newer figure is working current until the GIS layer catches up. The Chelan County evacuation-zone page updated for the first time in days (Aug 16, 10:47 AM), describing Level 1 as south of Chiwawa Loop Road/east of SR 207/north of Beaver Valley Road and Level 2 as east of Chiwawa River Road/north of Chiwawa Loop Road — narrative color only, not a boundary source, but it lines up with the GIS-mapped zones. lakewenatcheeinfo.com again returned no usable content this cycle, the same recurring gap as prior briefs.
What stands between the fire and Plain
Nothing moved closer. The nearest mapped perimeter edge holds at 7.3 mi N (on the stale snapshot), and the nearest VIIRS heat detection is 7 mi N. No new near-Plain heat cluster appeared this cycle — the persistent clusters at 7.7–9.3 mi N/NNE/NNW just logged more detections in the same footprints, and the still-unverified single-day cluster at 6.4 mi N carried over unchanged (2 detections, max FRP 1.12); it needs a second day before it's more than noise.
Fire weather
Favorable and slightly better than this morning's forecast: W at 3 mph this afternoon, and tonight now reads NW around 5 mph — this morning's forecast had flagged a light north-wind window for tonight, but the updated forecast (issued 3:50 PM PDT) replaced it with northwest. NW/W conditions hold through Thursday (3–9 mph, gusts light). No Red Flag Warning, no thunderstorm chance.
Air quality
Improved: modeled AQI is 108 (down from 110), PM2.5 20.6 µg/m³ (down from 38.5). A new NWS Spokane Air Quality Alert took effect at 11:54 AM today, renewed right at the prior alert's noon expiry, and runs through Aug 17, 12:00 PM.
Roads: no blocks logged.
What I'd watch
- Whether Level 1 upgrades to Level 2. Today's edits changed timestamps, not levels or boundaries — a level change at the house's own zone remains the real trigger.
- The 6.4 mi N heat cluster's second day. Still single-day as of this writing; tomorrow morning's run will show whether it persists.
- The GIS perimeter refresh. It's been stuck on Aug 15, 4:57 PM for two full cycles while InciWeb has moved to 132,978 acres — worth confirming once the mapped layer catches up.