The last 24 hours
The house is now inside the Level 1 "Get Ready" zone. All three Plain-side evacuation zones were edited today within three minutes of each other — Level 1 at 3:03 PM PDT, Level 2 at 3:03 PM PDT, Level 3 at 3:00 PM PDT — and all three pulled in closer to the house than this morning's report:
| Zone | This morning | Tonight |
|---|---|---|
| Level 1 "Get Ready" | 2.0 mi NNE | inside |
| Level 2 "Get Set" | 4.9 mi N | 2.0 mi NNE |
| Level 3 "Go Now" | 5.1 mi N | 3.7 mi NNE |
Level 1 is an awareness level, not an order to leave — but it is the first time in this fire that any zone has reached the house, and the whole system moved roughly 1.4–2.9 miles closer in one afternoon revision. Nothing in today's sweep (InciWeb, Lake Chelan Now, the Chelan County evacuation page, a general search for Aug 15 developments) describes or explains this specific redraw — the Chelan County evacuation-zone page is still stuck on its Aug 13, 11:01 AM update, and InciWeb's Aug 15, 10:14 AM summary covers Lake Chelan-side evacuations (unchanged since Aug 8) with no mention of Plain. Per the runbook, zone boundaries come only from the Sheriff's GIS layer regardless of what news has caught up to, so this move is being reported on GIS authority alone; tomorrow's pass will look for confirmation or a correction.
Separately, the fire itself grew: InciWeb's Aug 15, 10:14 AM post gives
131,860 acres, 10% contained, newer than the GIS perimeter snapshot
(128,085 acres, 10%, still timestamped Aug 14, 6:02 AM PDT — now over 34
hours stale). Per the reconciliation rule, InciWeb's newer figure is working
current; the mapped perimeter shape itself hasn't refreshed. Nearest mapped
edge stays 8.1 mi N; nearest VIIRS heat detection in the region is 7.2
mi N, with the same persistent near-Plain cluster group at 7.7–7.9 mi N/NNE
as this morning, including the still-single-day, unverified cluster at 7.9 mi
NNE (7 detections, persistent: false) carried over unchanged from the last
report. No new ignition signal.
What stands between the fire and Plain
The zone move outpaced the fire on the ground: no perimeter edge or heat detection sits any closer tonight than it did this morning, and the nearest of either is still 7.2 mi out. The redrawn zones read as planners pulling in a risk buffer — likely on growth potential, terrain, or forecast winds rather than the fire having physically advanced — but the brief can't confirm intent without a source, and won't guess at it. What's confirmed: the house sits inside Level 1 with Level 2 2.0 mi away and Level 3 3.7 mi away, all in the NNE quadrant, all edited within the same three minutes today.
Fire weather
Favorable, unchanged in direction: winds stay NW at 2–3 mph through tonight, shifting to W at 0–3 mph Sunday and W at 1–10 mph Monday through Wednesday — no north or northeast component anywhere in the forecast, so no signal down the Chiwawa or White River drainages toward Plain. No Red Flag Warning is active. This afternoon carries a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 5 PM — an outflow-risk window, since thunderstorm gusts can run any direction regardless of the prevailing flow, though the window has largely passed by this writing.
Air quality
Improved sharply on both measures: modeled AQI is 129 (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, bottom of that band), down from 150 this morning, and PM2.5 fell to 13.8 µg/m³ from 62.2. A renewed NWS Spokane Air Quality Alert took effect at 10:46 AM today and now runs through tomorrow, Aug 16, 12:00 PM.
Roads: no new blocks logged.
What I'd watch
- Whether the Level 1 zone upgrades toward Level 2. The house is inside an awareness zone, not an order zone; a further edit that raises its level, rather than just its boundary, would be the next real trigger.
- Confirmation of today's redraw. No news source has caught up to the 3:00–3:03 PM PDT zone edits yet — the next InciWeb or Chelan County EM update should either corroborate the move or reveal it as a data artifact.
- The unverified heat cluster at 7.9 mi NNE. Still single-day as of tonight; a second consecutive day of detections would elevate it from possible flare-up to confirmed activity.