The last 24 hours
The house is still inside the Level 1 "Get Ready" zone, unchanged since the Aug 15 redraw — no edit to any Little Giant zone today. The only zone edits this cycle were the LG Manson Level 1 and Level 2 zones, 23.0–23.9 mi away on the lake's north shore, edited within the same minute (10:52 AM PDT) — a system-wide republish, not a Plain-side move.
The GIS perimeter itself refreshed for the first time since Aug 15, 4:57 PM — now dated Aug 17, 7:00 AM PDT: 134,635 acres, 10% contained, up 2,284 acres from this morning. InciWeb's Aug 17, 12:52 PM update reports the identical 134,635 acres, 10% — the first time in several days the mapped layer and the news figure agree without reconciliation. The nearest perimeter edge closed 0.2 mi to 7.1 mi N.
One development needs flagging even though it isn't in the GIS yet: the
Chelan County evacuation-zone
page,
updated today at 3:30 PM, states "the Level 3 Evacuation zone has been
increased in the Chiwawa River area. New area extends south to the Deep
Creek and Lower Chiwawa River Road intersection." The Chiwawa is the exact
drainage the runbook flags as the danger corridor toward Plain. The
zones.geojson pulled this run still shows Level 3's last edit at Aug 16,
3:21 PM PDT — no Aug 17 timestamp — so this narrative change has not yet
appeared in the Sheriff's mapped layer, the only source that sets the
brief's boundaries. Treat it as pending, not confirmed, until the next zone
pull shows a matching edit.
Separately, Lake Chelan Now notes a community meeting Tuesday, 6:30 PM, at the Lake Wenatchee Recreation Club (livestreamed).
What stands between the fire and Plain
The mapped perimeter sits 7.1 mi N. The nearest VIIRS heat detection is closer, at 6.8 mi N (fresh, ~3 hours old) — normal for heat readings ahead of a mapped edge on an active, uncontained fire, not evidence of a new start.
The cluster flagged UNVERIFIED in the last two briefs — 6.4 mi N — logged its second distinct day (Aug 16–17, 4 detections, max FRP 13.1) and is now classified persistent, not a possible new start. A different cluster is new and single-day: 6.5 mi NNE, 2 detections, max FRP 3.6, Aug 17 only — flagged UNVERIFIED, needs a second day before it means anything.
The Chiwawa Level 3 narrative above, if the GIS confirms it, is the more consequential item — zone geometry, not heat, is what actually moves the alert condition.
Fire weather
Favorable through midweek: NW 5–9 mph (gusts to 20) tomorrow, NW 1–6 mph Wednesday — no north or northeast component toward the Chiwawa or White River drainages. Tuesday does bring a cross-Cascade pressure gradient — gusty 15–20 mph, gusts to 25 mph, RH near 20% — that the NWS Spokane AFD calls "elevated fire weather conditions," though "borderline for fire weather headlines"; no Red Flag Warning is in effect.
Five days out, Saturday is emerging as a possible thunderstorm/outflow day: the AFD notes "increasing confidence in Saturday seeing elevated to critical fire weather conditions" ahead of a frontal passage, with thunderstorm chances building. Flagging now per the runbook's rule on thunderstorm days, even this far out.
Air quality
Mixed: PM2.5 fell sharply to 15.5 µg/m³ (from 49.2 this morning), but modeled AQI ticked up to 119 (from 112) — the two move in opposite directions this cycle, roughly consistent with wasmoke.blogspot.com's note that afternoon air quality typically improves before smoke resettles into valleys overnight. A new NWS Spokane Air Quality Alert (Chelan, Douglas, Grant, and Okanogan counties) took effect at 10:00 AM today and runs through Aug 18, 10:15 AM, overlapping and then replacing the alert that was due to expire at noon.
Roads: no new blocks logged.
What I'd watch
- The Chiwawa River Level 3 expansion. County narrative says it moved today; the mapped zone layer hasn't shown it yet. Next run should confirm whether the GIS edit lands and how close the new boundary sits to the house.
- Tuesday's gusty, low-RH wind event. Direction stays NW/favorable in the forecast — worth confirming it doesn't pick up a north or northeast component before or during the gusts.
- The new 6.5 mi NNE cluster's second day, and whether the AQI uptick persists even as PM2.5 keeps falling.