The last 24 hours
The house is still inside the Level 1 "Get Ready" zone, and nothing about that has changed overnight: no zone in the system was edited between last night's report and this one. Level 2 "Get Set" holds at 2.0 mi NNE and Level 3 "Go Now" at 3.7 mi NNE, both dated to yesterday's 3:00–3:03 PM PDT redraw, same as reported last night.
The fire itself moved a little. The GIS perimeter finally refreshed — it had been stuck on an Aug 14, 6:02 AM snapshot for over a day — and now shows 132,351 acres, 10% contained, dated Aug 15, 4:57 PM PDT. That's +4,266 acres since last night's snapshot, containment flat, and the nearest mapped edge is now 7.3 mi N, 0.8 mi closer than the 8.1 mi reported Saturday night. InciWeb's Aug 15, 11:55 PM update gives the identical 132,351 acres / 10% figure, so for the first time in a few cycles the two sources agree without reconciliation.
A general search this morning turned up two secondhand references (unconfirmed — the underlying source is blocked from direct fetch here) describing a new Level 1 "Get Ready" zone covering the area south of Chiwawa Loop Road. That matches the geography of yesterday's 3:03 PM redraw that first pulled the house inside Level 1, and reads as the news cycle catching up to a move the GIS layer made a day earlier. Elsewhere, the Chelan County evacuation-zone page is still stuck on its Aug 13, 11:01 AM update, and lakewenatcheeinfo.com again returned no usable content this cycle (a bot-check redirect, not a data-source failure) — a recurring gap noted in several prior briefs.
VIIRS heat: 203 detections in the region in the last 24 hours, nearest 7 mi N. The cluster flagged last night as a possible new start at 7.9 mi NNE has logged a second consecutive day (19 detections, up from 7) and is no longer flagged unverified — it reads as established activity tied to the main fire, not a new ignition. In its place, a new single-day cluster appeared this morning at 6.4 mi N — 2 detections, low intensity (max FRP 1.12), UNVERIFIED. It's the closest near-Plain cluster flagged yet; no news source corroborates it, and it needs a second day of detections before it means anything.
What stands between the fire and Plain
Nothing moved on the zone side. On the ground, the fire closed a modest 0.8 mi over roughly 15 hours (perimeter edge 8.1 → 7.3 mi N) and produced one new low-confidence heat point slightly closer in than the established cluster group. Both are worth tracking, neither is a change in kind: the nearest confirmed heat or mapped edge is still north of 7 mi out, and the established persistent clusters (7.7–7.8 mi N, 33–148 detections each across four days) are unchanged in position, just accumulating more detections in place.
Fire weather
Mostly favorable: W at 3 mph today, shifting NW 2–10 mph (gusts to 18) by Tuesday and staying W/NW through Thursday — no sustained north or northeast component toward the Chiwawa or White River drainages. The one exception is tonight, where the forecast has a light N wind around 5 mph — a brief, weak window with the wrong-direction component, but not strong enough on its own to read as a danger signal. No Red Flag Warning is in the forecast, and no thunderstorm chance is listed this cycle (unlike Saturday's outflow-risk afternoon).
Air quality
Mixed against last night: modeled AQI is 110 (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, down from 129), but PM2.5 rose to 38.5 µg/m³ from 13.8. The NWS Spokane Air Quality Alert issued Aug 15 at 10:46 AM is due to expire today at 12:00 PM PDT — worth watching whether it's renewed.
Roads: no new blocks logged.
What I'd watch
- The new 6.4 mi N heat cluster. Single day, two detections, low FRP — needs a second day before it's more than noise. If it grows the way last night's 7.9 mi cluster did, it becomes the next thing to name explicitly.
- Whether Level 1 upgrades to Level 2. The house sits in an awareness zone; a level change, not just a boundary change, is the next real trigger.
- Tonight's north wind window. Light and short, but it's the only north-component forecast in the next five days — worth a second look if it verifies stronger than 5 mph or lines up with new heat.