The last 24 hours
The GIS perimeter, newly mapped at 5:46 AM PDT after sitting frozen at 127,488 acres since yesterday morning, now reads 127,771 acres, 5% contained — a gain of just 283 acres over roughly 23.5 hours, the slowest confirmed pace in this tracker's run. InciWeb's Aug 12 update (posted 10:08 AM) still carries the prior 127,488-acre, 5%-contained figures and describes "cloud cover and higher RH" moderating activity overnight, with localized torching continuing where fuels and sun exposure allow — consistent with the slower growth number. No zone was edited anywhere on the perimeter in the past 24 hours; every Plain-side line (Level 1, 2, 3) remains frozen since July 25–31, and the two LG Chelan zones redrawn Aug 12 (already covered in last night's brief) sit 15.1–16 mi NE/ENE, outside the alert radius and unrelated to the Plain side.
What stands between the fire and Plain
The one real change this cycle: the nearest mapped edge moved to 8.1 mi N of the house, in from 8.6 mi NNW at the last perimeter update — half a mile closer, and the bearing swung noticeably more due-north than recent reports. Three new, single-day VIIRS clusters sit right at that same spot, 7.7–7.8 mi N (5, 8, and 1 detections, max FRP 15.6), and the single nearest heat point (7.9 mi N, FRP 3.6, nominal confidence, 3 hours old) lines up almost exactly with the new perimeter's closest point — this reads as the fire's own leading edge advancing, not a separate start, but it's unverified and worth confirming in the next sweep. Chelan County's evacuation-zone page (last updated Aug 8) still shows the Plain-area Trinity zones unchanged — Level 3 to Twin Creek Road, Level 2 to Meadow Creek, Level 1 to south of Fish Lake — matching the frozen GIS lines. The containment work described on the fire's southwest corner (62 Road line, Meadow Ridge burn, Pole Ridge contingency) hasn't been independently re-confirmed since lakechelannow's Aug 7 report; no fresher update from that source this cycle.
Fire weather
Favorable and staying that way. Winds today are light S (~2 mph), shifting NW (0–3 mph) tonight, then SW, NW, and W through Monday — no north or northeast wind (the Chiwawa/White River drainage-toward-Plain signal) anywhere in the forecast window, though speeds are all under 7 mph regardless. NWS Spokane's Red Flag Warning runs noon–10 PM today for thunderstorm outflow — a 30% chance today, rising to 60% Friday — and erratic gusts from that system remain the one mechanism that could override the prevailing pattern.
Air quality
Mixed. Modeled AQI is 126 (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups) this morning, up from 93 last evening, while modeled PM2.5 fell to 58.8 µg/m³ from 110.4 over the same span — the two measures moved in opposite directions, which the source data doesn't explain. NWS has an Air Quality Alert in effect until noon today. Washington Smoke Blog's Aug 11 post noted a wind shift was expected to carry smoke into the Columbia Basin and south-central Washington this week, consistent with the valley staying smoky despite slower fire growth.
Roads: no new road blocks logged. The Chumstick Hwy pilot-car paving delay is still in effect and scheduled to end tomorrow, Aug 14.
What I'd watch
- Whether the next sweep confirms the three new heat clusters at 7.7–7.8 mi N as ordinary fire-edge advance rather than a separate start — they're unverified, low-FRP, and single-day for now.
- Whether the nearest-edge distance keeps closing after this 0.5-mile move, or whether it was a one-time correction from a stale prior reading.
- The Friday thunderstorm system (60% chance): welcome rain, but outflow gusts are the wildcard that could turn the currently favorable wind regime.